Any zero-sum game in Artsakh is a gateway for another war, resulting in yet another Armenian-Azerbaijani bloodshed, ethnic cleansings, new wave of refugees and destructions. Artsakh has been a source for Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict since mid 1918-ies, when the two countries announced about their independence. Since that time discussions around the conflict resolution has never been consensus based. At different times one of the parties has won the war, while the other one has been defeated. In the aftermath of each war new status quo has been established, which led the winning party to believe that the conflict is over.
There had been 4 wars between Armenians and Azerbaijanis resulting in over 100 thousand deaths. In 1905-1906 clashes between Armenians and Tatars took place in various regions and cities of South Caucasus including in Baku, Yerevan, Nakhijevan and Shushi. However, the only case when these clashes were not related to territorial claims, including that of Nagorno Karabakh, was the escalation of 1905-06. This was the time when Karabakh was part of the Russia’s Romanov Empire.
According to various sources Armenian-Tatar clashes of early 20th century resulted in over 10 thousand deaths, where Armenians suffered most of their losses in the cities of Baku and Nakhijevan, while Tatars became victims in Shushi and Yerevan.
The three other wars had to do with the issue of who will have control over Nagorno Karabakh.
The second Armenian-Azerbaijani war took place between 1918 to 1920. While the British empire was present in South Caucasus at this time, their suggested solution for Armenians and Azerbaijanis was to make a population swap of the disputed territories. The British offer was to move all Armenians of Artsakh to Ararat valley, while the Tatars (Azerbaijanis) living in the valley would move to Karabakh.
In 1918-20-ies Azerbaijanis had claims over not only Artsakh, but the regions of Zangezur, Nakhijevan, as well as Kars. During the first republics Azerbaijanis had created special local committees (Shura) which would refuse to take orders from the central government. The most rebellious groups where the ones in Zangibasar (currently Masis region of Armenia) and Vedibasar (currently Vedi region of Armenia).
By May 1920 Artsakh went under Sovietizing Azerbaijani control, while in summer of 1921 with the support of Bolsheviks it was attached to Azerbaijan with the status of autonomous region (Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Region).
Between 1918 and 1920 in various parts of South Caucasus clashes and massacres of Armenians and Azerbaijanis took place, of which at least 4 were massive and had systemic nature.
In the spring of 1918, before Armenia and Azerbaijan announced about their independence, most of the victims of the clashes in Baku were members of the Muslim community. Based on the official figures of Stepan Shahumyan, the head of the Baku Soviet at that time, the number of deaths as a result of these clashes was were 3000. Alternatively, Azerbaijanis mark that number as 9000.
In mid-September 1918, when Turkish-Azerbaijani joint forces took over Baku and announced it as the capital of Azerbaijan (before that the capital was Yelizavetpol or Ganja-Gandzak), over 10.000 Armenians were massacred based on the figures announced by Armenian National Committee of Baku.
In 1919 Armenian massacres took place in the Agulis region of Nakhijevan, were over 1000 Armenians were killed. This is what modern Azerbaijani writer Akram Aylisli describes in his “Stone Dreams” novel.
In 1920 Armenians were attacked again in Shushi. Thousands of Armenians were massacred and the city lost its Armenian community for the next seven decades, until 1992.
Between 1918 and 1920 numerous cases of massacres happened in different towns and regions of Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is hard to give an exact figure of the victims, however during the 4 cases described below at least 30 thousand people lost their lives.
Throughout the Soviet era, Armenians would bring up the Karabakh issue as much as it was possible considering the totalitarian system they lived in. However, it was during Gorbachev’s Perestroika period when it became possible to take the issue out to the streets of Soviet capitals.
Azerbaijanis believed that by creating the Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Region the issue had been solved back in 1921-1923. Armenians were convinced that it had not been a fair solution and were waiting for the right moment and opportunity. The Movement for Karabakh which started in 1988 became militant during the next three years and during the 1000 days of war Armenians were able to take control not only over Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Region but 7 adjacent territories, of which 2 partially.
In 1994 an indefinite ceasefire was agreed upon and brokered by Russia. This was a zero-sum game. During the war of 1991-1994 the number of human losses on the Armenian side was 6 thousand, while the number of Azerbaijani deaths reached 12 thousand. Several thousand human lives were also lost during the 26 years of “no peace and no war” after the ceasefire.
This was the period when Armenians believed that they had won the war, while Azerbaijanis were certain that the 1994 May agreement is an unfair one. They were waiting for the right moment and opportunity, but did not spare time to prepare. Azerbaijan was arming heavily, including with modern technological military equipment, while anti-Armenian propaganda – Armenophobia had become the official rhetoric of Baku. The image of monstrous Armenian which should be eliminated was effectively created in Azerbaijani public.
After more than 26 years Azerbaijan and Turkey, together with jihadist mercenaries began their attack against Karabakh and only in 44 days were able to regain over 3/4th of the lands that they had lost control over during the previous 1000 days war.
Today it is the Armenians who are in the tragic role of the loser. The sides lost at least 10 thousand lives, while over 15 thousand people have various levels of disabilities, post traumatic stress disorder, let alone their families. A whole generation born in 2000-2001 were sent to the death trap. A great part of what had been built during the previous three decades by Armenians was either destroyed or taken under Azerbaijani control.
Today, Armenians feel like the trilateral announcement signed on November 10th to stop the 44-day war, plays into the interests of all the other parties – Azerbaijan, Turkey and Russia, but not Armenia and Artsakh. The hearts and spirits of the Armenians are broken but time will pass, situation will change and Armenians will use any opportunity to re-establish historic justice, as they tried to do in 1918 and 1920, as well as 1988, after 70 years of silence.
There is no single solution to Nagorno Karabakh conflict which can make the parties fully happy. However, we need to at least have a situation where moderate Armenians and Azerbaijanis will feel like the suggested resolution is acceptable for their societies and countries based on the realities on the ground and pragmatic calculations.
The question here is – will there be the 5th Armenian-Azerbaijani war? If so, when should we expect it and which one of the parties will celebrate its victory again? One thing is clear, so long as there is no prospect for a fair solution and the parties end up with bloody wars with zero-sum game, renewed military escalation becomes inevitable.
I believe that only consensus based, dignified solution can open a path for lasting peace and cooperation. Otherwise, the door will remain open for violence and Armenians and Azerbaijanis continuously living with the fear of another war.
The Article was originally published in Artsakh based Analiticon magazine
January 30, 2021
