A four-day war
Tatul Hakobyan, Stepanakert
http://www.jam-news.net/Publication/Get/en-US/1647
Talish: the ruins’ story
Since 1992, Armenian Talish village was destroyed twice and so its residents were to be evacuated twice. During the first evacuation, Aram Ohanian was saving his children, during the second – his grandchildren.
‘I was covering the grandchildren with my own body, so as to protect them from hailing bombs. I collected all the things that survived – we were transported to a different place,’- said Ohanyan.
Talish is one of the ancient and hugest settlements in Nagorno-Karabakh. In 1992, when the Azerbaijani armed forces stormed the village, Ohanyan left the place to save himself and his children, that’s when other residents of the neighborhood – about 40 thousand Armenians, also left the area.
Talish was under control of the Azerbaijani troops for almost two years. In April 1994, when Armenian forces made the enemy retreat, Ohanyan and part of the residents, who abandoned the village, returned and rebuilt their destroyed houses.
Overnight on April 2, 2016, when the Azerbaijani army subjected Talish village to a massive shelling, the Ohanians – a husband and a wife, as well as their three children, the youngest of whom is 4 months old, were sleeping in their rooms. Their son, a soldier, was keeping the guard that night.
‘The children couldn’t understand what was going on. Scared by explosions, they were crying loudly. My daughter-in-law took a four-month baby in her arms and covered him with her body and I and my wife – the other two,’- tells Ohanyan, standing in his ruined house.
Talish is located in the far north of Nagorno-Karabakh and is bordering Azerbaijani villages. The villagers were evacuated a few hours after the shelling. Just a few elderly stayed in the houses in the outskirts of the village. On the morning of April 2, the Azerbaijani subversive group entered the village. As all media outlets have already reported, they shot three elderly men and cut off their ears.
Azerbaijani armed forces had occupied several military posts, that were taken over by Armenians in a couple of days. Azerbaijanis managed to take in the Lele Tepe height and five team sites in the south-eastern direction of the contact line.
How the four-day war started
April 1-5 war resulted in hundreds of people killed and wounded on both, Armenian and Azerbaijani sides. However, it should not be regarded as unexpected one, because since May 1994, when the parties entered into an indefinite truce, the two sides have launched the arms race. The negotiation process, by and large, entered into a deadlock, whereas Azerbaijan continuously publicly stated about its determination to end the conflict using military power.
Apart from human casualties, the parties also sustained considerable material and military losses as a result of the four-day war. However, 1994 status quo was not changed, except for a small area that fell under control of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces.
So, how the four-day war started? We present four possible scenarios.
Scenario One: from subversive operationto to a large-scale military action
Overnight on April 2, the Azerbaijani subversive group penetrated into Talish, but was crushed. Azerbaijani Mi 24/35 helicopter flew to the group’s assistance, but it was downed on the eastern slope of the Mrav mountain. Thus, the military actions unfolded along the entire perimeter of the contact line between NK and Azerbaijan.
The parties used heavy artillery, including ‘Smerch’ and ‘Grad’multiple rocket launchers. Both, military and civilian targets were shelled. It is quite possible that in case of occupation of Talish village and the neighboring Matagis, inspired by their successes, the Azerbaijani troops could have started advancing their infantry on different sections, mainly in Agdam-Stepanakert direction.
Scenario Two: failed blitzkrieg
Azerbaijan attempted to implement a blitzkrieg and seize Armenian villages or districts. This version is supported by the fact that on the eve of April 1, Azerbaijani side conducted extensive realignment of heavy military hardware and personnel along the contact line.
As Bako Sahakyan, Nagorno-Karabakh President, stated at the news conference, the Karabakh side had been aware of that realignment thanks to the counterintelligence’ work. Azerbaijani blitzkrieg failed.
Scenario Three: ‘Russia’s secret hand’
The western and partly Armenian information, expert and political science communities have been discussing these days a version, under which the military clashes were provoked by Russia, so that the parties would appeal to Moscow for cessation of hostilities. Russia was to arranged a meeting, as a result of which the hostilities would be ceased and later the Russian peacekeepers would be deployed in the conflict zone.
Indeed, a meeting between the General Staff Chiefs of Azerbaijan and Armenia was held in Moscow with the mediation of the Kremlin and the hostilities stopped.
Scenario Four: ‘Turkey’s secret hand’
Armenian and partly Russian information, expert and political science communities have been actively discussing a version, according to which Turkey was interested in hostilities on the contact line between NK and Azerbaijan. Russian Premier, Dmitry Medvedev, also held that view. It is hard to say unambiguously, what this version is based on, but it’s obvious that Turkey is openly supporting and defending Azerbaijan.
Anti-Russian days in Armenia
Armenia is experiencing anti-Russian days. To many people it may seem incredible and amazing, but this is the reality. The President and the Prime Minister have expressed concern over the fact that Azerbaijan is using against Karabakh the weapons, that Baku continuous to procure from Moscow. Armenian Defense Minister’s Spokesman has termed the sales of Russian weapons to Azerbaijan as ’immorality’.
Russian officials, including the Prime-Minister and Vice-Premier, stated, they would continue to supply weapons to Azerbaijan in accordance with the concluded contracts. Russian officials and Mass Media are more often talking about the need to return to Azerbaijan the districts adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh, that are under control of the Armenian side. These areas mainly fell under Armenians’ control in 1993, when Heydar Aliyev – Ilham Aliyev’s father, was in power in Azerbaijan.
It seems that Armenian government has found intelf in a difficult situation. The country’s strategic ally – Russia is arming Azerbaijan and resorting to propagandist pressure to urge Armenian forces withdraw from Nagorno-Karabakh adjacent districts.
Serzh Sargsyan and Armenia are facing hard times. Perhaps those difficulties made Serzh Sargsyan meet with his most stringent critict and implacable enemy – first President of Armenia, Levon Ter-Petrosyan. At the meeting, held at the first President’s residence, the discussion focused exclusively on Nagorno-Karabakh issues.
The opinions expressed in the article, convey the author’s views and terminology and do not necessarily reflect the position of the editorial staff.
The opinions expressed in the article, convey the author’s views and terminology and do not necessarily reflect the position of the editorial staff.
Published: 13.04. 2016
