WikiLeaks-Armenia No 81
2008-06-30
C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 000536
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT SARGSIAN INVITES PRESIDENT GUL TO YEREVAN
Classified By: CDA Joseph Pennington, reasons 1.5(B)(D)
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SUMMARY
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¶1. (C) President Serzh Sargsian announced during an official visit to Moscow on June 23 that he was considering inviting Turkish President Abdullah Gul to Yerevan for the September 6 World Cup soccer qualifying match between Turkey and Armenia. FM Nalbandian confirmed late on June 27 that an official invitation along these lines has now been sent to Ankara through the Armenian embassy in Tbilisi. A presidential advisor urged the US to press Ankara to respond positively to the invitation. The President’s comments in Moscow also included a reference to the GOT [Government of Turkey]-proposed historical commission to examine the events of 1915, which Sargsian said could be acceptable to the GOAM [Government of Armenia] if the Turks first agree to open the border and establish diplomatic relations. Although the invitation to Gul has been widely praised across the political spectrum, the President has come under heavy fire for appearing to accept the historical commission, which many here view as casting doubt on the “fact” of the Armenian genocide. In the face of such criticism, FM Nalbandian publicly asserted on June 27 that “the genocide issue remains on our agenda.” The invitation to President Gul is a dramatic and welcome step toward breaking the deadlock in Armenia’s relationship with Turkey. The challenge will now be for Armenian officials to avoid public comments — like Nalbandian’s — that could undermine that effort. End summary.
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CAUTIOUS SERZH FINALLY THINKS BIG
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¶2. (C) In a bold, positive step toward possible reconciliation with Turkey, President Serzh Sargsian approved late on June 27 an official invitation to Turkish President Abdullah Gul to come to Yerevan to attend the Armenia-Turkey World Cup soccer qualifying match on September 6. The invitation has been sent through the Armenian embassy in Tbilisi. A senior presidential advisor who previewed the move to CDA on June 22 said the invitation was aimed at “changing the dynamic between the two countries in a decisive way.” The advisor insisted that Sargsian is “absolutely sincere” in his desire to move forward with Turkey, a view echoed later in the week by FM Nalbandian in a meeting with visiting DAS Matthew Bryza and the Minsk Group co-chairs.
¶3. (C) The President’s office initially told us that an op-ed under Sargsian’s name calling for a “fresh start” with Turkey would be published in a major international newspaper in order to reinforce his overture to Gul — the op-ed has yet to materialize, but we are told it is in the works. We heard from one contact with close ties in the Presidency that the op-ed was essentially “hijacked” by erstwhile opposition leader and current coalition partner Artur Baghdassarian, who claimed he would place the piece through his “contacts in the Associated Press.” (Comment: Incredible as this story may seem, it fits with a larger pattern of disarray we have noted in the President’s operation during the early months of his tenure. The haphazard way in which news of the Gul invitation spilled out in Moscow is further evidence of disorganization and poor staff coordination at the Presidency. End Comment.)
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COMMENT ON HISTORICAL COMMISSION DRAWS FIRE
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¶3. (C) Sargsian announced his intention to invite Gul during a June 23 meeting with an Armenian diaspora group that was part of his official visit to Moscow. His comments were picked up by the Armenian news service MediaMax the following day. In addition to revealing his “soccer diplomacy” plan, the President also remarked that Armenia could accept the GOT-proposed historical commission to examine the events of 1915 provided that the Turks first agreed to open the border and establish diplomatic relations. (Comment: This was the first time an Armenian leader had — in principle, at least — acknowledged that Armenia could accept a historic commission. Former President Kocharian had maintained that discussion of historical events must be part of a broader, intergovernmental commission that would tackle all bilateral issues between Armenia and Turkey. End comment.)
¶4. (C) The reference to the historical commission drew immediate fire, both from the opposition and from the Dashnaktsutyun, a partner in the governing coalition. A spokesman for former president and current opposition leader Levon Ter-Petrossian (LTP) claimed that by leaving open the possibility of Armenia’s participation in a historical commission, Sargsian had become “the first leader in Armenia’s history to call the genocide into question.” Dashnak luminary Giro Manoyan remarked that Sargsian “had obviously been given bad advice,” and argued that the President’s statement contradicted former President Kocharian’s policy as well as Armenia’s National Security Strategy. Manoyan described the view expressed by Sargsian as “unacceptable.”
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NALBANDIAN RESPONDS WITH UNHELPFUL COMMENTS
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¶5. (C) Perhaps in response to such criticism, in a June 27 press conference with the visiting Swiss Foreign Minister Foreign Minister Nalbandian asserted that “the genocide issue remains on our agenda.” Most Armenian media outlets interpreted the remark as a signal that the GOAM [Government of Armenia] would continue to pursue international recognition of the genocide. (Comment: Armenia has always walked a fine policy line on this issue. Although genocide recognition has always been a part of official policy, former FM Oskanian told us repeatedly that Armenia viewed the genocide reolution in the US Congress as a US internal political matter. End comment.)
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COMMENT
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¶6. (C) Sargsian’s proposal for a Gul visit to Yerevan is a bold and welcome step from a new president whose brief tenure has until now been characterized by extreme caution. Although the President and his staff fumbled the initiative by unnecessarily raising the commission question, thereby opening themselves to domestic criticism, the move has the potential to provide significant new momentum to Armenia’s relations with Turkey and is worthy of our strong support. The challenge will be to keep senior GOAM officials focused on the groundbreaking nature of Sargsian’s invitation and to refrain from comments that could jeopardize a positive response from the Turkish side — as Nalbandian’s comments may have — or risk provoking unhelpful domestic political wrangling that could throw the effort off-track.
PENNINGTON
