WikiLeaks – Armenia No 12
2008-04-08
SUBJECT: SARGSIAN BLOGS WITH ARMENIAN PUBLIC, DENIES JOB SWAP WITH KOCHARIAN
Classified By: Charge d’Affaires Joseph Pennington, reasons 1.4 (b/d).
——-
SUMMARY
——-
¶1. (SBU) Although the events described herein are some four weeks old, we believe there is still value in sharing them on the eve of President-elect Sargsian’s inauguration. They reflect an interesting attempt on his part to reach out to the Armenian public, using some of the same tools heretofore used primarily by the opposition. We will be interested to see whether he continues to try novel approaches to win over the public after he takes office.
2.(C) In one of a string of public outreach efforts taken in the wake of Armenia’s disputed presidential election and post-election violence, President-elect Serzh Sargsian on March 10 created an internet blog wherein he invited compatriots to post questions and comments. On March 13, Sargsian answered approximately 80 of the 3,000 blog postings in a two-hour-long taped interview that Armenia’s public TV showed in its entirety. During the interview, Sargsian professed his readiness for dialogue with Levon Ter-Petrossian (LTP) if LTP recognized his victory, defended the authorities’ actions on March 1, and ruled out a rumored job swap with outgoing President Robert Kocharian. Public reaction to the blog initiative was mixed, with viewers generally skeptical of its impact and critical of Sargsian’s response on some questions. END SUMMARY.
——————————————–
PRESIDENT-ELECT TAKES MESSAGE TO BLOGOSPHERE
——————————————–
¶3. (SBU) In an effort to engage the Armenian public after the March 1-2 violence between protesters and security services that left at least eight dead, President-elect Serzh Sargsian created a blog journal on March 10 to which he invited compatriots to post questions and comments to his address. In the space of four days, the blog received approximately 3,000 entries, 80 of which Sargsian answered in a taped interview with four moderators on March 13 which Armenia’s public TV showed in its entirety after the nightly news program.
¶4. (SBU) The blog was one of several outreach forays that the Prime Minister initiated in the two weeks following the lethal clashes. He visited some of the protesters who were injured in the clashes; held a meeting with small and medium enterprises to field questions on the events and their impact on business; met with university students for a question and answer session; wrote a guest editorial to the Washington Post with presidential rival and now coalition government cohort Artur Baghdassarian; and held a Council of Government meeting on March 6 at which he said the GOAM [Government of Armenia] shared some of the blame for the violent events. (NOTE: Prior to the election, Sargsian had hired an English firm to advise him on public relations. It is unclear whether he’s retained the firm in the post-election period. END NOTE.)
¶5. (SBU) Entries posted on Sargsian’s blog included a wide range of comments and questions, from supportive to critical to neutral. The supportive included words of support/congratulations; exhortations for Sargsian to restore order in the country and arrest LTP; complaints/requests to address corruption, monopolies, unemployment, and low salaries and pensions. The critical included the handling of March 1 events, stolen elections, “raising a hand” on his own nation, corruption, appointment of governmental officials based on clan loyalties, denouncing of oligarchy, socio-economic issues, and the crackdown on the opposition. The politically neutral entries included concerns about unemployment, the country’s economic situation, independence of the courts, personal business and property issues, the increasing costs of education, high taxes, and rising consumer prices. (COMMENT: Remarkably, many unpleasant questions were left posted on the blog and subsequently posed during the TV interview. It did not appear that the President-elect or his staff had meddled to pre-arrange the selection of the questions during the interview. Indeed, Sargsian answered some rather unsavory queries. END COMMENT.)
—————–
KEY PRONOUCEMENTS
—————–
¶6. (SBU) Some of the key pronouncements made by President-elect Sargsian during the broadcast were as follows (direct quotations are denoted by parentheses):
— On dialogue with LTP: Sargsian said he is ready for dialogue, but only if LTP recognizes his election victory. (“If Levon Ter-Petrossian continues to claim that he was elected president with 65 percent of the vote, rejects the decision of the Constitutional Court, and calls me bandit and Mongol-Tartar, what kind of dialogue can we have?”)
— On the authorities’ role in March 1-2 events: Sargsian assured viewers that no order was issued to disperse protesters in Freedom Square, saying he did “everything possible” to avoid loss of life. (“There was no order to disperse the oppositionists rallying at Freedom Square.”) If police had planned to disperse the crowd, he maintained, they would have been prepared, while the fact that policemen suffered injuries proved otherwise (i.e., they weren’t prepared). Sargsian vowed that police had gone to the square only to check whether demonstrators possessed weapons, and reacted the way they did only when discovering that protesters were indeed armed. He also denied that Armenia’s army had been inappropriately used during the state of emergency. (“We have never used the army for political purposes.”) He acknowledged that preventing the clashes represented a failure for the authorities. (“But we failednto prevent it, which makes us responsible for what happened.”)
— On a possible job swap with outgoing President Kocharian:
He put these rumors definitively to rest, at least for now. (“Robert Kocharian and I are so honest that if such a scenario had been possible, we would have told this before the election the way that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Dmitriy Medvedev did.”) He also tried to distance himself, at least rhetorically, from President Kocharian.(“My opinion does not always coincide with the opinion of President Kocharian.”)
— On intentions to reform Armenia (crime/corruption):
Sargsian promised to “root out crime in Armenia.” He also promised to combat bribery and corruption in the judiciary. (“I promise everybody that we will support all people wishing to expose bribe-takers.”)
— On the composition of Armenia’s future government after he becomes president: While Sargsian refuted assertions that his current cabinet is tainted, and said he had no reason to be ashamed of any of his appointments, he promised not to appoint new people to the government who have a bad reputation among the people.
— On the decision of Deputy Defense Minister and now recently dismissed ex-General Manvel Grigorian to support LTP: Sargsian expressed regret and hurt that his former comrade-in-arms in the war for Nagorno-Karabakh had engaged in politics. (General Manvel Grigorian “. . .for some reason decided to become involved in politics and not to obey his supreme commander.”)
— On the future of the opposition in national and local politics: Sargsian took pains to assure viewers that the opposition would have a voice under his administration. (“We intend to amend legislation and amend certain guarantees for a parliamentary minority.”) He also declared that the opposition’s electorate could take active part in coming elections of local authorities across Armenia.
— On media issues:
He tried to assuage the public’s concerns about a perceived pro-government media bias. He said he was concerned that people trusted rumors and information from the Internet more than information broadcast on public and quasi-public TV (Armenia’s H1 and H2 channels, respectively). But he also said that communication with people via the Internet was the best format in Armenia’s given situation. (“Today, the Internet is a strong mechanism for shaping public opinion. That’s why I have chosen this format of communication.” “This format allows people to ask all kinds of questions and to remain unknown. This is the best format in the present situation.”)
— On why he had not received congratulations from President Bush:
Sargsian maintained that the reason had to do with post-election developments in Armenia, and not the election itself. Sargsian noted that the State Department had agreed with the assessment of international observers, who qualified the presidential election as being mostly in line with international standards. Sargsian also claimed that President Bush had congratulated him after his appointment as Prime Minister in 2006, which was not typical for a first person of a country to congratulate the second person of another country.
— On the personal issues front:
He dismissed a question referencing his reputed fondness for gambling. (“No, I am not a gambler.”) He also flatly rejected rumors that he owns a share in big businesses in Armenia.
——————————–
REACTIONS MIXED, LARGELY CYNICAL
——————————–
¶7. (C) When Poloff surveyed contacts on the blog initiative, he heard mixed reactions, with the majority being cynical. Some didn’t watch the interview, refusing in principle to watch public TV because of its lopsided bias toward the ruling regime. Some welcomed the initiative, saying it was important for Sargsian to speak to the public after the March 1-2 events, but were simultaneously put off by his peremptory manner in answering some of the questions. Some said it was farcical, forcing them to wince when observing some of Sargsian’s answers and awkward mannerisms.
¶8. (C) Alla Bakunts, an experienced political observer who used to work in the political-economic section and now works for the local UN office, found it difficult to watch as Sargsian grew visibly upset with some of the frank questions posed. She said his tense body language and palpable displeasure with some of the questions posed by the four moderators forced some of the latter to preface their questions with excuses and apologies before asking some questions. Contacts from a local USAID implementer told Poloff they found it disgraceful how the uncharismatic Sargsian peremptorily answered questions with “It’s a lie” and other short-fused, testy answers. Others found it farcical how he answered some questions, including his explanation why he had not yet received congratulations from President Bush. (NOTE: Sargsian apparently shrugged it off, saying he had received congratulations from the White House when he became prime minister in 2006, implying he had already received official blessings from Washington prior to the disputed presidential election. END NOTE.)
——-
COMMENT
——-
¶9. (C) While we commend the intended spirit behind the blog, and note that it was this medium which opposition supporters used to circumvent the media blockade imposed by the state of emergency, the time for conciliatory words has well passed. In conversations with the President-elect, his staff, and unofficial representatives, we have urged bold moves to address the divisions that the election exposed and worsened. Our exhortations appear to have fallen on deaf ears, however, as the disconnect between Sargsian’s words on one hand, and the post-election crackdown on the other, continues to widen.
PENNINGTON
