WikiLeaks – Armenia No 104
2009-08-17
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000570
SUBJECT: EUR DAS BRYZA’S MEETING WITH FORMER PRESIDENT
YEREVAN 00000570 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch. Reasons 1.4 (b/d)
¶1. (C) In their meeting on August 8, former Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosian (LTP) noted that time was not on Armenia’s side on negotiations over Nagorno Karabakh as Azerbaijan grew relatively stronger. While the framework outlined by the Minsk Group’s Basic Principles provided the only way forward, he said his coalition would still have to oppose a settlement if Sargsian did not release the remaining political prisoners. While the ANC [Armenian National Congress] favors putting pressure on the GOAM [Government of Armenia], he expressed concern about the impact on poor Armenias from the suspension of MCC roads funding. END SUMMARY.
LTP: AZERBAIJAN PLAYING FROM STRENGTH
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¶2. (C) In a separate meeting with Levon Ter-Petrosian (LTP), the former president said that on N-K, ten years had been wasted, during which Armenia has become relatively weaker. Azerbaijan had grown relatively stronger both economically and demographically. It was not isolated by a blockade as Armenia has been. Moreover, he said, the Armenian authorities were illegitimate and vulnerable. He believed Azerbaijan would get more now from a negotiated settlement than it could have five years ago.
¶3. (C) As for his Armenian National Congress (ANC), LTP said they would not create obstacles to a settlement. If there were no solution now according to the Basic Princples, the next solution on offer would be still worse, or there would be war. However, he said that if Sargsian turns out to have negotiated a bad solution, ANC would do all in its power to prevent it. Moreover, if the authorities did not release the remaining 23 of “our friends still in jail,” the ANC would have to fight against Sargsian using every legal means and on all topics. LTP said it was a “huge mistake” that the President didn’t release all political prisoners through the amnesty. Sargsian still had legal means to extend the amnesty to those remaining in prison, he said, and urged Bryza to act as an intermediary in securing their release. “If the political prisoners issue is not solved, we will have to mobilize against the government,” he said, and quickly added “by constitutional means only.”
DETAILS OF A SETTLEMENT EMERGING
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¶4. (C) Regarding the N-K settlement under consideration by the Minsk Group, Bryza said that it would be familiar to LTP, once details became known. In fact, the step-by-step approach LTP had championed as president was the foundation of the current proposed settlement. The joint statement of the U.S., Russian, and French presidents helped make clear to the populations of both countries the framework for a settlement. While the six points in the announcement addressed the toughest issues, further, extensive details were not released so as not to overwhelm or shock the populations. In Azerbaijan, while Aliyev is dealing with public perceptions that they are in a position of strength and need to make the most of it, Aliyev has also been trying to prepare the population for possible settlement by saying that it would be a good deal for Azerbaijan, Bryza said. Hostile rhetoric from Azerbaijan should be understood as rhetoric, reflecting government attempts to manage the public mood and the demands that Azerbaijan make full use of its position of strength.
POSSIBLE IMPEDIMENTS: RUSSIA AND SARGSIAN’S WEAKNESS
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¶5. (C) At this point, Bryza said, a lack of courage or strength, particularly on the part of Sargsian, is what could impede a breakthrough. For Aliyev’s part, he needed to avoid overplaying his hand. In response to LTP’s question as to whether Russia would be an impediment, Bryza noted that, judging by actions, President Medvedev had been helpful. Putin’s comments the day before, that Russia was playing a major role on settlement of N-K, suggested that he wants to be seen as leading, and is thus invested. LTP said that if Russia did not want it, it would not happen. Bryza said that now it seems that Russia wants a solution, perhaps because it wants to improve its reputation following what was, for them, the shocking fallout from the Georgia war. Perhaps more importantly, Russia may be trying to improve its position in the Caucasus. Since it views its position in Armenia as unassailable, it can only improve its strategic position in the region by improving relations with Azerbaijan. Russia believes helping with a settlement could help pull Azerbaijan toward it. The USG [U. S. Government] is more than happy to let Russia move the process forward as far as possible. LTP worried that Russia does not actually want a solution, but rather a lingering problem that leaves both Armenia and Azerbaijan dependent on Russia.
YOVANOVITCH
