WikiLeaks-Armenia No 63
2007-07-20
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000926
SUBJECT: PRIME MINISTER UNDERSCORES COMMITMENT TO U.S. RELATIONSHIP IN PRIVATE DINNER WITH CDA
Classified By: CDA R.V. Perina, reasons 1.4 (b,d)
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Sargsian hosted CDA and DCM to a private dinner July 18, for a long evening of vodka toasts and frank conversation, by way of welcome to CDA and farewell to DCM. The overarching message of the event was the Prime Minister’s clear intent to sustain a close working relationship with the U.S. Embassy. Sargsian brought a workmanlike pragmatism to most issues. Substantively, he spoke of his genuine readiness to reach an NK peace deal with Azerbaijan, and to make the tough compromises necessary. He was again encouraging on resolving the Radio Liberty difficulties. He was less forthcoming on the Alexander Arzumanian case, saying that there was more genuine dirt in the case than we realize. He said that post-presidential election, President Kocharian would take three or four months off, and only then decide what to do with the rest of his life. He described speculation that Kocharian would become prime minister was completely baseless. END SUMMARY
¶2. (S) NAGORNO KARABAKH: The PM vowed himself fully committed to negotiating a real NK settlement with Azerbaijani President Aliyev. He told us he has all along been the voice in the GOAM [Government of Armenia] pushing hardest for getting a settlement done. He knows that neither Armenia nor especially NK itself will ever be attractive for serious foreign investment so long as the conflict is unresolved, and both pay a high economic price for this loss. He thanked the USG [U. S. Government] for detailing in a study the potential economic benefits of resolving the conflict, but said that the “moral” case for solving the conflict is even more compelling, as the dynamism of Armenia’s growth would only increase. Sargsian confessed his frustration with President Aliyev for his inconstancy in the negotiations and constant bellicose rhetoric. CDA agreed with the PM’s points about the costs of inaction, and how imperative it is for all sides to find a peaceful resolution. the situation grows more dangerous with each passing year of status quo. He noted that resolving the conflict would be a “historic achievement” for the PM.
¶3. (C) RADIO LIBERTY: Sargsian again spoke positively of the prospects for negotiating our way past the technical, contractual problems between Radio Liberty and Armenian Public Radio. He said he trusted the chairman of the state television and radio commission to work out the details.
¶4. (C) ARZUMANIAN CASE: The PM was less forthcoming on the case of jailed former Foreign Minister Alexander Arzumanian, who remains in National Security Service detention under investigation for money laundering. Sargsian acknowedged that it is not in Aremnia’s national interest, politically, to have Arzumanian in jail, looking to many like a political prisoner. However, he asserted that the evidence against Arzumanian is substantial and the crime serious. Sargsian said that, far beyond the roughly $55,000 confiscated from Arzumanian’s apartment that have been reported in local press. The NSS [National Security Service, Armenia’s KGB] actually intercepted some $180,000 (nine transactions of roughly $20,000 each) being fraudulently wire-transferred to Armenia from Russia, and have learned of an additional $900,000 that they did not successfully intercept. The money came from known organized crime figures in Moscow, and clearly for no good purpose, Sargsian insisted. He told of his private meeting with Arzumanian’s AmCit wife, in which he said to her, “do you think all these politicians demonstrating and waving signs outside my office care anything about your husband? They are just using him for their own purposes.”
¶5. (C) NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE: CDA made our points that the continued unregistered status of the NDI remained a black mark on Armenia’s democracy credentials. We had understood from President Kocharian NDI would be registered after the parliamentary election, but now are told he had along along meant after the presidential election next year. NDI is highly regarded in Washington, including in Congress, and it does Armenia’s reputation no good to leave this situation unresolved. Sargsian heard our points on this, but made no substantive comment.
¶6. (C) PRESIDENT KOCHARIAN’S FUTURE: Sargsian dismissed media speculation that President Kocharian might take up the newly-enhanced post of prime minister after stepping down as president. The PM said that Kocharian had no concrete plans, but looked forward to taking three or four months completely off, and only then figuring out what he wants to do next. Sargsian hypothesized that Kocharian might find he quite likes being an ex-president, and relinquishing altogether the pressures of government. Sargsian commented that the past nine years of high office had taken their toll on Kocharian; he had practically no close personal friends anymore after so many years making touch decisions, isolated by the presidency. Sargsian thought Kocharian may well find himself content with a successful political legacy in which he can take pride, and that private life may be a refreshing change.
¶7. (C) PROSPEROUS ARMENIA: Sargsian acknowledged, however, that Gagik Tsarukian had launched his Prosperous Armenia party, to rival Sargsian’s Republicans, at Kocharian’s instigation. Sargsian did not elaborate on why; the seeming implication was as a means for Kocharian to maintain independent political leverage. Sargsian said Tsarukian was genuinely surprised and depressed when his Prosperous Armenia party failed to win a plurality in the National Assembly. Tsarukian had surrounded himself with sycophants and with their voices always in his ear, had convinced himself that he was much-beloved in Armenia and his momentum was unstoppable. Sargsian said he had called Tsarukian in for a chat about a week after the election and said, in effect, “buck up, you’ll be fine, you’re in a great position. You’ve got all your successful businesses going here, and I’m not going to interfere with any of that.” In other words, “no hard feelings.”
¶8. (C) ELECTIONS: Sargsian said that he had put the word out prior to the parliamentary elections that “you don’t cheat this time.” Sargsian felt that since he himself was now so closely associated with the Republican Party, it behooved him to ensure this message went out for the protection of his own reputation. Looking ahead, he hoped and expected the upcoming presidential election to be better still. He really saw no one in the fractured opposition who had the standing to be an effective challenger. He said that frankly speaking the presidential campaign began May 12.
¶9. (C) REFORMING STATE REVENUE: Sargsian spoke highly of the newly-appointed head of Armenia’s Tax Service, Vahram Barseghyan. The PM’s mandate to Barseghyan is to improve collection and instill rigorous fairness. No one must be allowed to get away with evading rightful tax obligations. Sargsian defended the incumbent chairman of the State Customs Committee, Armen Avetisyan, saying that “He’s not nearly as bad as you think he is, and the good thing is everyone hates him equally.” The implication being that Avetisyan plays no favorites in administering the Customs service.
¶10. (C) WASHINGTON VISIT: Sargsian plans to visit Washington October 18-21 or possibly 22, on the margins of the IMF/World Bank meetings, to lead Armenia’s USATF delegation, and hopefully to have high-level USG meetings. He may also extend his visit to intersect with the Armenian Catholicos in the United States.
¶11. (S) INTELLIGENCE REFORM: DCM asked whether statements he had reportedly made to NATO Assistant Secretary General Robert Simmons (reftel) that the National Security Service would come under reform scrutiny were accurate. Sargsian acknowledged that Armenia’s intelligence services were in need of serious reform, and that he had been slow to take on the issue. If he were to do so, Sargsian said he would need help and support from the United States. DCM said that, as in every area in which our collaboration was successful, we would have to have a reliable and engaging partner to work with in the intelligence agency, which had been lacking up until now. Sargsian took the point.
¶12. (C) BIO NOTE: Sargsian was relaxed, candid, and confident, bringing a welcome cool-headed pragmatism to the discussion of tough issues. His trick of half-filling his shot glass with an ice cube (“I like my vodka very cold”) is a very convenient way to keep the volume of liquor manageable on these occasions where local custom demands a string of bottoms-up toasts.
PERINA
