WikiLeaks – Armenia, No 22
2004-04-13 14:02
C O N F I D E N T I A L
SUBJECT: KOCHARIAN LOOKING FOR A WAY FORWARD, OPPOSITION INTRANSIGENT FOR NOW
Classified By: Ambassador John Ordway for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).
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KOCHARIAN SEEKING ADVICE
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¶1. (C) Following the forceful break-up of the opposition demonstration at roughly 2:00 a.m. April 13 (septel) and the subsequent detentions, Kocharian convoked the Ambassador, saying, “I invited you in order to consult with you on the internal political situation.” Although Kocharian did not appear to be entirely ready yet to move forward, and mentioned his intention to have the Prosecutor-General follow up with criminal cases against opposition figures, he did actively seek the opportunity to take our advice on board. The Ambassador urged him in the strongest possible terms to cease the detentions of political opponents and to forego criminal cases against them. Ambassador Ordway emphasized that the government can avoid making the situation worse by choosing not to pursue political leaders with criminal charges (even if they have allegedly committed technically illegal acts).
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OPPOSITION IN A FURY, UNWILLING TO TALK
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¶2. (C) Notwithstanding the fact that the opposition demonstrators and leaders painted themselves into a corner with Monday night’s demonstration blocking one of Yerevan’s major streets by not simply declaring “victory” and going home at dark, or at any other point earlier in the eight hours that the government tolerated the rally, they are livid at what has been happening since the rally was forcibly broken up early Tuesday morning. We have spoken with opposition leaders from across the spectrum, and it is clear that they are unwilling to enter into any sort of dialogue for the moment. The Ambassador spoke by telephone during the course of the day with Stepan Demirchian and Artashes Geghamian, the two principal opposition leaders, as well as several other major opposition figures. He also spoke with the Speaker of Parliament and the Minister of Justice. The opposition leaders were in an absolute fury over what had transpired. While none of the leaders had any clear idea of where to go at this juncture, they rejected categorically the Ambassador’s suggestion of dialogue and engagement with the authorities. Both the Speaker and the Justice Minister, by contrast, strongly endorsed the need for a political dialogue and moving the current confrontation from the streets into a constructive venue, such as the Parliament.
¶3. (C) The opposition faces insurmountable odds in their campaign to oust President Kocharian. Although they appear sincere in their belief that the majority of the country supports them and their current course of aggressively seeking Kocharian’s departure, neither we nor any other objective outside observer shares that view. Moreover, the opposition’s inability to agree on any positive policy platform undercuts their ability to appeal to, let alone consolidate, general popular dissatisfaction with Kocharian. They now find themselves in a blind alley, with few attractive options.
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BURDEN ON THE PRESIDENT
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¶4. (C) This circumstance puts the burden on President Kocharian to create sufficient political space to allow the opposition the option of turning from the streets to a political process. It appears that at least some, and probably all, of the coalition members are willing and eager to engage in such a dialogue. This will require the President to back off, and the opposition to overcome their current outraged hostility and return to the political arena.
ORDWAY
